Negotiations over implementation of the border framework agreement face new obstacles as Italy expresses reservations about heading the verification body tasked with monitoring army deployment.
Lebanon awaits word from Washington in September on the date of the eighth round of Rome 3 talks, with a government source saying the negotiations are pointless unless they produce a breakthrough in activating the framework agreement. The seventh round ended without progress on forming the mechanism to verify army deployment in the first pilot zone and the absence of Hezbollah weapons and fighters.
Through Lebanese-Italian contacts, Rome has made clear it lacks enthusiasm for leading the verification mechanism, citing reservations and concerns, though the three countries party to the framework agreement have raised no formal objection to assigning Italy this task.
Italy's military intelligence chief, General Giovanni Caravelli, visited Beirut recently and met political and military leaders involved in the negotiations, in a reconnaissance mission concerning the south and the verification mechanism.
Caravelli's visit preceded Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri's rejection of the pilot zones in their current form, which cover only liberated towns plus western Zoutar from which Israel withdrew but insists on periodic entry from occupied eastern Zoutar. Berri called for expanding them to include still-occupied towns and cities, though he had already rejected the pilot zones outright. This has prompted attention to how President Joseph Aoun, who oversees the talks, will respond to Berri's position.
The Italian envoy expressed little enthusiasm for his country leading the verification mechanism, citing several concerns. Chief among them is the lack of guarantees for Italian monitors to carry out their task given Hezbollah's rejection of both the pilot zones and the mechanism. Rome also dislikes verifying Lebanese army deployment because it will not accept questioning the army's mission or casting doubt on the credibility of the Lebanese military institution, which it trusts.
Italy also cited unhelpful experience with UNIFIL, in which it has participated since 1978 under UN resolutions 425 and later 1701. Hezbollah's history of incitement against what it calls the families of the international force weighed in Rome's calculation.
Italy, preparing for parliamentary elections, is wary of taking on the verification mechanism from fear that its monitors will come under attack and their lives endangered, harming the ruling party's electoral prospects.
Washington and Tel Aviv have excluded any role for France and Spain in the mechanism. Israel has proposed Azerbaijan, with which it maintains diplomatic relations, but Hezbollah objects. Lebanon's government prefers a neutral European state to take on the verification task, conditional on agreement on implementation plans and criteria to ensure the pilot zone remains free of Hezbollah weapons and fighters.
General Joseph Clearfield, head of the military coordination group for Lebanon, said that agreement on the verification mechanism and its role alone could open the door to expanding the pilot zone to include towns under Israeli control.
Difficulties in reaching agreement on the mechanism continue to obscure the fighting on the Ali al-Tahir hills front. A senior security source told the outlet that Israel is restricting itself to firing at surrounding villages and access points to tighten a siege on the hills and cut supply lines to Hezbollah fighters at a military facility beneath them, and to rotate them as has happened before. The source notes Hezbollah remains committed to non-retaliation.
The source has no precise information on who is inside the facility or whether Iranian Revolutionary Guards are present. He notes that senior Iranian officials claim to stay in touch with fighters there, and Iran's Majlis Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf has said he knows Hezbollah members individually. This supports opponents' accusation that Hezbollah's decision-making lies in Iran and it cannot act without consulting the Guards leadership.
The source sees no need for these figures to provide Israel with pretexts. Israel follows a policy of incremental takeover of the hills and their approaches, and fears are rising that it can cut supply lines to the facility. The facility's fate hinges on Israeli opinion polls, which currently show opponents of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ahead ahead of Knesset elections on 27 October. Netanyahu may feel compelled to seize control of the hills to boost his electoral standing, and while he leaves himself room on timing, Washington has not yet given the green light, delaying any occupation as the military balance remains unfavourable. He is bracing for a Hezbollah response to avoid Israeli casualties that could hurt his electoral prospects.
A defence ministry source defended Lebanon's participation in the talks, asking Hezbollah: what is the alternative after trying military solutions. The framework agreement has restrained Netanyahu from targeting Beirut, its southern suburb and Rafik Hariri International Airport, and from expanding raids to the Bekaa Valley. By rejecting the agreement and the pilot zones and clinging to its weapons, Hezbollah offers no alternative but alignment with Iran and reliance on the Iran-China memo, whose implementation remains unstable amid tit-for-tat campaigns and sometimes gunfire between the parties. Hezbollah knows Lebanon will not be covered by the memo because Washington refuses to link Lebanon's negotiating track to Iran. What facilities has Hezbollah offered for implementation while maintaining its position against exclusive state control of weapons, waging fierce campaigns against Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, and refraining from responding to Israeli violations without giving its base any justification beyond a policy of strategic patience. But for how long?
Setting the date for an eighth round remains in Washington's hands. The U.S. ties it to guarantees that will produce a breakthrough Aoun can use against Hezbollah and revive hopes for the talks. Otherwise there is little point in holding it if it merely repeats round seven without progress, unless Washington insists on continuing negotiations without committing to what President Donald Trump pledged to Aoun at the Washington summit.
