A diplomatic source says high-level contacts between Beirut and Washington led to an agreement where Israel would refrain from further strikes if Hezbollah did not retaliate for the assassination of two commanders.
Israeli airstrikes that killed two Hezbollah commanders have prompted an agreement between Israel and Hezbollah to de-escalate, a diplomatic source told Nidaa al-Watan. The strikes, described as a harsh message to the party, followed what the source called a security operation carried out by Hezbollah about a week prior, which remained unclaimed.
High-level contacts took place between Beirut and Washington to contain the escalation, culminating in a deal where Israel would settle for what it had already done in exchange for Hezbollah not retaliating for the assassination. The agreement prompted intensive internal contacts among President Joseph Aoun, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, leading to a commitment to de-escalation from all three officials.
According to Nidaa al-Watan's source, the United States did not grant Israel a green light to carry out a broad operation on the Ali al-Taher heights in southern Lebanon. Washington's intervention halted Israeli escalation during the weekend in the south, the source said.
Hezbollah has not yet received approval from Iran to conduct operations against Israel, according to sources cited by al-Hadath news outlet. The diplomatic source also noted that there are no clear grounds regarding how countries are selected to participate in verifying Hezbollah's disarmament in Lebanon.
The diplomatic source warned that the days leading up to Israeli elections will be extremely difficult on both security and military levels, given Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's insistence on achieving what the source described as a moral victory by decisively winning the battle over Ali al-Taher. General Joseph Clearfield's visit to Lebanon as head of the ceasefire committee did not result in an expansion of the demarcated zones, al-Hadath reported.
Attempts to confine the confrontation geographically to the Ali al-Taher area appear uncertain, the source cautioned, which increases the likelihood of expansion should the situation escalate further. The source's assessment suggests that while de-escalation has been agreed upon in principle, the underlying tensions and external pressures may yet destabilize the arrangement.
The agreement reflects the delicate balance being maintained by three Lebanese leaders at a moment of heightened regional tension. Each of the three presidencies committed to de-escalation, indicating consensus on avoiding a broader conflict at this stage.
What happens next depends on whether both Israel and Hezbollah adhere to the terms of the agreement in the weeks ahead. The diplomatic source's warning about the period before Israeli elections suggests that the calm may be contingent and fragile.
The unresolved question is whether the underlying issues that drove the confrontation to this point will be addressed or whether the de-escalation agreement merely pauses a deeper conflict that could resume once the political calculations of the parties involved shift.
