A political source says Hezbollah is seeking to derail direct negotiations with Israel and is waiting for Iranian clearance to intensify military operations in the south.
Two weeks before a new round of talks between Lebanon and Israel, sponsored by Washington and hosted in Rome, the southern border erupted into airstrikes and explosions amid mutual accusations of violating the ceasefire framework. Israeli strikes killed 11 people and revived scenes of displacement from the south in what a political source described as the heaviest and bloodiest escalation since the ceasefire began.
According to the source, Hezbollah is seeking an opportunity to derail the option of direct negotiations and has begun raising the tempo of its military operations while awaiting a green light from Iran to escalate further. The party is operating amid tensions that characterise Iran's relationship with Washington.
The escalation carries multiple objectives for both sides of the conflict. For Hezbollah, the source indicated, the violence serves as a means to undermine the negotiation process that Washington and Rome are attempting to facilitate between Beirut and Tel Aviv.
The timing of the military surge is significant. It arrives in the final stages of diplomatic preparations for talks that have been in the works for months, suggesting a deliberate effort to create conditions that could make direct discussions either impossible or substantially more difficult.
Iran's role as a constraint on Hezbollah's decision-making has become increasingly apparent in recent months. The party does not move on major military decisions without approval from Tehran, according to observers of Lebanese and regional politics, which means any further escalation would require explicit Iranian consent.
The political source stressed that the current tensions between Iran and the United States form the backdrop to these calculations. Iran's management of its own interests in the region, including its nuclear negotiations and sanctions pressures, factors directly into whether it permits Hezbollah to widen the conflict.
Hezbollah's attempt to sabotage the negotiation process reflects deeper concerns within the party about the terms any ceasefire agreement might impose. Direct talks with Israel, even if mediated by foreign powers, represent a departure from the party's historical posture and threaten to constrain its freedom of action in the south.
The ceasefire framework that has governed the border since its inception requires both sides to refrain from military action, yet both have accused the other of systematic violations. The framework itself remains fragile and dependent on the willingness of external powers, particularly the United States, to enforce its terms.
What happens next depends partly on whether Iran decides to grant the approval Hezbollah is seeking and partly on how Israel responds to further escalation. Rome's mediators face a narrowing window in which to move the talks forward before the security situation deteriorates beyond recovery.
