Israel has resumed targeted killings in southern Lebanon after a 60-day diplomatic window closed, prompting warnings that the escalation could widen the conflict and draw in Iran.
Israel conducted seven airstrikes on Ali al-Tahir on Monday night and killed Ali Samir al-Hajj Hassan, whom it identified as a commander in Hezbollah's Radwan Force, along with his wife and four children in Ansariya. Diplomatic sources told al-Jadeed that the resumption of Israeli assassinations after the expiration of a 60-day period announced in Washington signals that Israel has shifted from awaiting negotiation results to preparing for a new phase of escalation.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office raised its political demands, accusing Hezbollah of breaching the ceasefire and attacking Israeli soldiers and claiming the strike targeted the headquarters from which the attack was ordered. Lebanese political sources said the notable element in Prime Minister Nawaf Salam's response was his statement that the Ansariya casualties were not military infrastructure and that any military facilities were the exclusive responsibility of the Lebanese state and army, signalling domestically and internationally that the army was prepared to address the Ali al-Tahir complex.
Military sources told al-Jadeed that current Israeli escalation confirms there will be no new round of military negotiations. No military delegations have scheduled talks for September after the most recent Rome meeting ended very badly, according to al-Jadeed's information.
Political negotiations remain unsettled and have become dependent on what unfolds on the ground. Simultaneously, Lebanese official sources are conducting contacts with Washington to attempt to deter escalation and keep the political door open.
Efforts by General Joseph Clearfield to expand experimental zones and form a monitoring committee have not achieved a breakthrough. Diplomatic sources warn that if Israel launches a broad attack on Ali al-Tahir, Iran could be drawn into the escalation, coinciding with an announcement by Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf that he maintains contact with fighters in the front lines in Lebanon.
The closure of the diplomatic path through Rome represents a critical shift in the crisis management approach that had governed the ceasefire arrangement since it took effect. The 60-day window had been intended to allow space for military and political negotiations to reduce tensions and establish mechanisms for preventing further violations by either side.
Hezbollah has not publicly commented on the nature of the Israeli military operation at Ali al-Tahir, leaving ambiguous its interpretation of the strikes and their implications for the ceasefire. The silence is notable given the group's customary rapid responses to Israeli actions that kill its members or strike its positions.
The involvement of external powers has grown more explicit with each escalatory step. Diplomatic channels with the United States remain active, but their ability to constrain Israeli military decisions appears to have weakened as Netanyahu's government signals a return to unilateral military action to address what it describes as ceasefire violations.
What happens next depends on whether Hezbollah interprets the strikes as the opening of a wider campaign or as a limited response to specific tactical concerns. Any large-scale Israeli offensive on Ali al-Tahir would test the ceasefire framework and could force decisions in Tehran about whether and how to respond, fundamentally altering the scale of the conflict.
